James Surowiecki on using internal Idea Futures markets. By contrast, while it's clear that some CEO-s are excellent leaders and managers, there's little evidence that individual executives are blessed with consistently good strategic foresight. In fact, in an extensive study of intelligent [CEOs] who made disastrous decisions, Dartmouth's [Sydney Finkelstein] writes, "[CEOs] should come with the same disclaimer as mutual funds: Past success is no guarantee of future success." Even when executives are smart, they have a hard time getting the information they need - at so many firms the flow of information is shaped by political infighting, sycophancy, and a confusion of status with knowledge.

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