William Lind (May12) expects a fighting withdrawal as an Iraq Exit Plan. It is still possible the end may not come this way. We may still manage a shaky hand-off to a UN-designated Iraqi government, and that government might last long enough for us to withdraw with some shreds of dignity. George W Bush might awake some morning a new man, announce he was swindled, sack the neo-cons and bring in someone like Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, who opposed the war all along, to handle our disengagement. The Archangel Michael might appear over Mecca and convert all the Mohammedans to Christianity. But the growing probability is that we will be driven out of Iraq by a general uprising, an intifada in which every American will be the target of every Iraqi.

Update: Martin Van Creveld feels similarly. As to what he was told of the war's objectives, such as defending democracy and helping the South Vietnamese people, he ([Moshe Dayan]) considered it "childish" propaganda; if many of the Americans he met believed in them, clearly nobody else did... First, according to Dayan, the most important operational problem the US Forces were facing was intelligence, in other words the inability to distinguish the enemy from either the physical surroundings or the civilian population... Second, as Dayan saw clearly enough, the campaign for hearts and minds did not work... The third and most important reason why I think VietNam is relevant to the situation in Iraq is because the Americans found themselves in the unfortunate position where they were beating down on the weak... In international life, an armed force that keeps beating down on a weaker opponent will be seen as committing a series of crimes; therefore it will end up by losing the support of its allies, its own people, and its own troops... The end result is always disintegration and defeat; if U.S troops in Iraq have not yet started fragging their officers, the suicide rate among them is already exceptionally high. That is why the present adventure will almost certainly end as the previous one did. Namely, with the last US troops fleeing the country while hanging on to their helicopters skids.

Dec'2005 update:

• William Lind offers a new plan. Please note that I am not talking about how to win the Iraq war. The war was lost from before the first bomb fell, because the strategic objectives were never attainable no matter what we did. Further blunders, from de-Baathification and sending the Iraqi Army home through mistreating the civilian population, have moved us from mere failure to incipient disaster.... The critical (and secret) negotiations, however, will not be with Iraq's puppet government, but with the Sunnis. Here, what we need is what is sometimes called a "diplomatic revolution." Instead of siding with the Kurds and Shiites against the Sunnis, we need to offer the Sunnis an alliance.

• Martin Van Creveld continues to predict withdrawal, but says Yet a complete American withdrawal is not an option; the region, with its vast oil reserves, is simply too important for that. A continued military presence, made up of air, sea and a moderate number of ground forces, will be needed. Ouch.

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