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z2007-03-02- Taleb Black Swan
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Whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.
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last edited
by BillSeitz
on
Jul 29, 2008 10:46 am |
Nassim Taleb's Black Swan ISBN:1400063515 is coming out in a couple months. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of GooGle was a Black Swan; so was 9/11 (World Trade Center). For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Apr update: Jason Kottke points to James Surowiecki interview, plus old Malcolm Gladwell interview and other things.
[Andrew Gelman]'s notes from reading it.
Bill Seitz, fluxent at gmail dot com, Weblog