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z2008-02-01- Kelly Prediction Markets
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Bill Seitz is a Product Manager/CTO with a track-record of bringing a business perspective to building agile product-development teams for start-ups, and is seeking a senior role in an entrepreneurial organization building disruptive Internet-driven products.
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last edited
by BillSeitz
on
Dec 18, 2008 9:07 pm |
Kevin Kelly on Prediction Market-s. In particular he looks at past successes for the [Iowa Electronic Markets] in the past Presidential Election-s.
Sept5 update: he looks at some other markets. He concludes that the "token" (play money) markets do as well as the "real" markets. Or, more precisely, they echo each other over the near past on the current Presidential Election. Extrapolate beyond that at your own risk.
Bill Seitz, fluxent at gmail dot com, Weblog