(2007-12-04) Nie Iran Halted Weapons Program Years Ago

An NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) says that Iran halted its Nuclear Weapon-s program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb... The new report comes out just over five years after a deeply flawed N.I.E. concluded that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons programs and was determined to restart its nuclear program - an estimate that led to congressional authorization for a military invasion of Iraq, although most of the report's conclusions turned out to be wrong. Intelligence officials said that the specter of the botched 2002 N.I.E. hung over their deliberations over the Iran assessment, leading them to treat the document with particular caution.

Tom Maguire notes the varying levels of uncertainty expressed in the Estimate.

The assessment, which relies on data collected through Oct. 31, was reportedly completed in 2006, but was blocked by administration officials who wanted it to be more in line with Vice President Dick Cheney's hardline views. As The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum notes, the NIE's "basic parameters were almost certainly common knowledge in the White House" at least by last year, when the document was finished. Yet even in the past two months, the administration has continued to push its faulty, inflammatory rhetoric and claim that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.