(2009-04-22) Robb Next Attack

John Robb thinks The attack, if it does come, will likely be suicide bombers (inexpensive wetware that is employed as terminal guidance systems for explosives) that detonate their packages in crowded commercial areas or Mumbai/Kabul style rampages/hostage take overs. If there is an attack on commercial aviation, it will likely move up the network to the terminal hub area rather than a low yield focus on aircraft. Breadth and simultaneity will likely be substituted for depth (meaning more places rather than bigger booms), to achieve maximal shock effect... The US is suffering from a new window of vulnerability to this type of attack. Unlike a year ago, any attack on US commercial areas (Retail, Transportation, etc.) will have outsized Network Effect-s. Here's why. Due to a global economic collapse (Credit Crisis 2008) and excessive indebtedness, Americans have cut back on purchases to repair household balance sheets (this is a long running secular shift). This has put most retail facing firms on the edge of bankruptcy. (Making them more brittle in the face of more bad surprises.) (Terrorism)

Chet Richards considers how we should behave. And we need to stay as close to normal as possible - no shutdown of the airlines, no F-15s boring holes in the sky, no draconian Security measures at shopping malls and office buildings. This is going to take some preparation; otherwise military leaders and local officials will err on the side of caution, and the sum of their efforts will be as John suggests.

John Robb fears we'll do just what Richards wants to avoid.