(2017-11-29) Zorzi Common Sense Eats Common Talk

Stefano Zorzi: Common Sense Eats Common Talk

*In November 2008, with the financial crisis (Credit Crisis 2008) in full swing, Queen Elizabeth attended a ceremony at the London School of Economics. Facing an audience of high ranked academics, she posed a simple question: “Why did nobody notice it?”

How could it be that no one among the smartest economists, commentators, and policymakers in all her kingdom – and beyond – had been able to see the formation of a bubble of such dimensions?*

in London, New York and the other financial centres of the world, an entire class of experts kept blatantly ignoring the facts, anecdotal evidence, and common sense that could have anticipated what was about to happen.

Common talk is the unreflective parroting of smart-sounding theories, stories, and arguments without applying any test, even the most basic one, to verify their validity. It’s not that common talk is necessarily false – some of what people repeat mindlessly happens to be true. It’s just that veracity is of secondary or tertiary importance. In this respect, it is a lot like Harry Frankfurt’s concept of bullshit: a lack of concern for the truth.

As social animals, we need a collective worldview within which to operate. Common talk is one of the main ways we construct that worldview.

Common talk is fragile

There is a tendency today to associate fake news and disinformation only with the uneducated, but this is extremely self-oblivious. Instead, as the financial crisis of 2008 shows, people that can be considered “very smart” by any acknowledged external measure – from IQ to educational and professional achievements – are far from being immune to common talk. Peter Thiel goes even further, arguing that “smart people” are more likely than average to pick up on trendy and fashionable thinking and get trapped by it.

A possible explanation lies in the content of common talk. People pick up on things when they somehow are looking for them. They are, in other words, receptive to a particular type of message. Common talk is particularly tempting for those who have an affinity for explanations, for overarching stories, for big-picture thinking. These seemingly coherent narratives have something in common: they all focus on the macro.

The same Nassim Taleb offers us a way out from this trap, encapsulated in this quote: “it is easier to macrobullshit than to microbullshit”

Common sense sits at the opposite side of common talk along the macro/micro divide. Its focus is tangible and practical. Observations and experiences as opposed to rationalisations. Common sense is inherently micro.

Because of its empirical and practical nature, I argue that common sense should be considered “default-right” while common talk should be considered “default-wrong”.

Common sense does fail us on occasion – and when it does, it fails us big time. The tricky part is distinguishing the situations where common sense works from those where it can lead us astray.