(2020-08-07) Pearson Age Of Discord

Taylor Pearson: Book I Enjoyed: Ages of Discord, by Peter Turchin. The core of the theory is that social conflict is the result of "elite overproduction." There are only so many senators, Fortune 500 CEOs and Big Law partners and as competition for those limited seats heats up, it causes society to fracture.

Ages of Discord is one such book that seeks to explain why and how recurring periods of prosperity and distress arise focusing on structual-demographic variables.

To start with what I didn't like, I kept getting a sort of vague worry about scientism

The core of the theory is that social conflict is the result of "elite overproduction." There are only so many senators, Fortune 500 CEOs and Big Law partners and as competition for those limited seats heats up, it causes society to fracture.

Turchin looks at the United States from founding to present, seeing two macrocycles. The first cycle ultimately resulted in a Civil War as Northern and Southern elites clashed over economic policies. Turchin believes the most recent cycle peaked around 1970 and we are headed towards a similar "disintegrative phase" (though not necessarily a Civil War).

it is wrong in an interesting way as I do think that the story of the 1% vs. the 0.1% is perhaps more explanatory than the more popular 1% vs 99%.