(2020-12-26) Seeing The New Covid Variant Smoke

Jacob Falkovich: Seeing The New COVID Variant Smoke. rtnew=1.7 is an entirely different case. Suppressing it would require the sort of lockdown that would yield rt=0.6 for the old strain, a number that has never been reached by any US state for any amount of time.

Most of the information I have on this new COVID variant comes from this post by Zvi. 2020-12-24-ZviCovid1224WereFedItsOver

The median prediction on Zvi’s LW post is around 60% that the new variant is at least 50% more transmissible and same for there being a third COVID wave in the US:

I would revise the crowd’s estimate for the first question down

I would break it down something like this:

• 35% that the new strain is a nothingburger.
• 30% that it’s slightly more transmissible, say with an effective reproduction rate (rt) 20% higher.
• 30% that it’s significantly more transmissible, e.g. 70% higher.
• 5% in the Captain Malcolm Reynolds probability bucket.

A variant that’s just 20% more infectious will still take over exponentially from the old variant resulting in a chart like the one we see.

It could have rt=1.2 and catch a superspreader event to make it look like rt=1.5-1.7.

rtnew=1.7 is an entirely different case. Suppressing it would require the sort of lockdown that would yield rt=0.6 for the old strain, a number that has never been reached by any US state for any amount of time.

No one will believe any of the “experts” at the CDC or WHO or Dr. Fauci because they have all repeatedly lied and tried to manipulate people and reversed their positions without admitting that they have. They all have negative credibility at this point with many Americans.

We’ll have time to vaccinate the most vulnerable 10-20% of the population by April-May, at which point the majority of everyone else will get the new strain.

US, which is currently projected to reach majority immunization no earlier than the late summer by refusing to do basic things to rush the process.

And what’s the Captain Mal bucket?

The new variant being more virulent in addition to being more infectious. Another newer strain that’s even worse. Or, in a nightmare scenario, a highly-transmissible mutation that also renders the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines ineffective.

Rationalists are seeing the smoke again.