(2022-01-06) Omicron Delta And The Need For More Accurate Hospitalization Data

Omicron variant, Delta variant, and the Need for More Accurate Hospitalization Data. We now have six laboratory studies showing a decreased ability of Omicron to infect lung tissue, providing cellular level support that Omicron is less likely to cause the dreaded viral pneumonia prompting admission for supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation. So why then is the U.S. seeing a surge in hospitalizations that looks poised to surpass last winter’s high? Possible reasons include the following:

Delta Is Still Out There

Unhealthy Demographics

Relative to the population of South Africa, a broader swath of our population is susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19 due to preexisting conditions such obesity, high blood pressure, emphysema, and other conditions.

The Accuracy of Our Hospitalization Data

Finally, how confident are we in our COVID-19 hospitalization data? We expect that hospitals now routinely test all patients requiring admission for COVID-19, regardless of whether they are being admitted for coronavirus-related illness or not. The reason for this is to isolate patients with positive COVID swabs, even if asymptomatic.

In a large study from South Africa, 63% of patients with Omicron on swabs admitted to the hospital were not symptomatic for COVID-19. So, knowing that so many South African were detected through testing and not symptoms, just how many COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. are based on an incidental positive test when admitted for something else?

PCR tests can be positive for upwards of 90 days. Wouldn’t be better to be doing rapid tests in the ER to identify those with an active infection?

The United Kingdom is a leader in the detailed reporting of its hospital data. It recently found that 25-30% of its COVID-19 “hospitalizations” were incidental.

Los Angeles County-run hospitals reported that 2/3 of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 on admission were hospitalized for something else. (With Covid)