(2022-03-14) ZviM Omicron #16 Danger In China

Zvi Mowshowitz Covid-19 Omicron Variant #16: Danger in China. Scott Gottlieb says we essentially don’t know the extent to which Omicron has spread in China... We know China has not made great use of its time so far, and seems incapable of the loss of face necessary to get mRNA vaccines

And we know they have quite a few cases. We don’t know how many, but the official counts are certainly not overcounting cases.

Closing off all school-based transmission won’t slow down Omicron much. Closing schools is a half-measure. If you have reason to think schools need to be closed, and you are following China’s old playbook, than anything that makes you need to shut down Shanghai’s schools should make you shut down all of Shanghai.

In other cases, China has made this extremely expensive and painful choice, and it has worked

factories are still running, however. “(Workers) need to do COVID tests, but it’s not a prerequisite for them to be able to enter factories,” said King Lau, who helps manage a metal coating factory.

It sure looks like the thing I kept expecting to happen, that kept not happening, is finally happening.

China keeps daily cases under 50 per million through 2022: 30% → 15%.