(2024-01-06) Schroeder Unpredicting2024

Karl Schroeder: Unpredicting 2024. ...not what your average random stranger is fishing for when they find out I do foresight and ask me to “predict something.” What we care about, what they’re fishing for, is what’s going to surprise us.

Human society is a complex adaptive system.

So are the natural and technological worlds

If we reframe the coming year around one simple idea—expect surprises—then it becomes clear that predictions are irrelevant and can even be dangerous when they lead us to rely on eventualities that don’t happen

Instead of trying to plan based on unreliable foreknowledge, ask yourself where you are resilient, and where you are brittle. Work on increasing your ability to react well to surprises.

On an individual basis, most such preparedness is financial, but the surprise of Covid-19 forced us to re-evaluate our relationships, use of space and resources—think about its effect on the daily commute—and behaviour in public spaces. At present we all need to be thinking about our political resilience as well: are we prepared for some of the rights and freedoms we’ve lived with our whole lives to be suddenly ripped away?

Geopolitically, I’m watching South American social and constitutional shifts, and the imminent conflict over Arctic sovereignty.

I’ll just remind you to watch out for apocalyptic terms and subtext in the news and posts you read in the upcoming months (see 2023-10-05-SchroederApocalypseOrJustACatastrophe)

Step back, remove the terminology and look at what’s actually being said. This will help with understanding when the rhetoric gets hot.

The reason why you should do all this is to find out where you’re vulnerable—personally, organizationally, and politically. Locate those weak spots, and learn what you can do to build resilience there.