(2024-01-11) Bjarnason The Intelligence Illusion: Stepping Into A Pile Of AI

Baldur Bjarnason: The Intelligence Illusion: stepping into a pile of 'AI'. After I published Out of the Software Crisis I divided my time too much...time when I, again, deliberately chose not to think entrepreneurially and instead wrote the book I thought (and still think) needed to exist in the world

because I was too focused on the outcome (a book) I didn’t put enough through into whether it was a book that suited my network or the audience I have the capability to reach.

Producing the book built on my experience in research, my writing, my understanding of software development, UX design and machine learning, so making the book was a good match for my Means.

I put a lot of effort into maintaining a “just the facts” level of impartiality in the book.

It wasn’t as much of a success as Out of the Software Crisis, which sold quite a bit more in its first few months after publication, but it hasn’t done badly all things considered

The discourse surrounding the AI bubble doesn’t really have anything to do with grounded business concerns on either side.

*The Intelligence Illusion is a book I had to write because I needed to understand the technology and its implications. I began my research with an open mind and even a few ideas for projects but ended up convinced that generative models (GenAI) are, all else being equal, one of the worst ideas to come out of software in recent years.

And, yeah, that includes cryptocoins.* (cryptocurrency)

There’s a limit to how much I can build on that. My research completely cured me of any interest in working with the technology and there doesn’t seem to be a market for “AI” consultancies where the only message is “don’t use it, just wait and reassess the situation in three years' time”.

The book might not have been the most entrepreneurially sensible thing to write in 2023, but I do believe it was the most important work I did in 2023, at least for myself, if not for my audience.

Deciding not be an “AI” pundit

Soon after publishing The Intelligence Illusion I had the misfortune of being quoted in the New York Times.

misrepresented just how critical I am of the AI Bubble, how much the cult-like behaviour that seems to be driving it worries me, and it misrepresented the existing discourse surrounding the potential harms caused by generative models

It also made me realise that I had a choice to make:

• Stick to my existing “game”. I am a writer and web developer
• Change the “game”. Become a pundit

wading into a bubble – becoming one of the foot soldiers of the discourse machine – will chew you up and spit you out in pieces

It would also be a short-lived “success”. These bubbles pop

I decided I would not be changing my game.