(2026-02-19) Maurya The Roadmap That Actually Predicts Startup Success

Ash Maurya: The roadmap that actually predicts startup success.

1 Universal Principle
“Say no to product roadmaps.” (Project-oriented Roadmaps are counter-productive for Software Product Teams)

Replace your product roadmap with a traction roadmap

2 Underlying Strategies at Play

I. Measure outcomes, not outputs

A traction roadmap is outcome-oriented. It tracks what matters: customers. Specifically, the rate at which your business model creates happy, paying customers

A traction roadmap charts key traction milestones on that journey, from your first 10 customers to product/market fit.

II. Work backward from your Minimum Success Criteria.

What’s the smallest outcome that would deem this project a success 3 years from now?

Once you have your MSC, you extrapolate backward using 10X milestones:

• Year 3: Your MSC (e.g., $1M ARR = ~830 customers at $100/mo)
• Year 2: 1/10th of that (~83 customers)
• Year 1: 1/10th again (~8 customers)
• 90-day goal: Your very next milestone

3 Actionable Tactics

I. Define your one traction metric.

the customer action that drives revenue.

II. Deconstruct traction into the Customer Factory.

series of upstream steps:
Acquisition → Activation → Revenue → Retention → Referral (AARRR)

Measuring these five steps weekly creates a simple yet powerful dashboard that identifies your biggest bottleneck. Instead of optimizing everything simultaneously, dedicate 80% of your effort to breaking your single biggest constraint.

III. Use a Now-Next-Later rollout plan instead of a feature timeline.

Your time frames depend on where you are. Pre-traction? Use yearly milestones. Already have customers? Use 90-day cycles with progressive doubling.