Black Swan
highly unlikely/unpredictable event
book by Nassim Taleb (written 2003-2006)
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_(Taleb_book)
- quotes the "imbeciles did not want to hear" (warning about Credit Crisis 2008)
John Robb posts:
- from 2020: that Coronavirus wasn't really a surprise to many, means the definition should change to include it, by including anything (beyond being large and changing-everything) that is complex (nonlinear and uncertain): that it would happen might be predictable, but how it would play out is not, even after it starts.
- from 2005 on the Homeland Security list of attack scenarios. Events of this type should be categorized as black swans -- unpredictable events. As the Security "big thinker" Bruce Schneier points out in his book "BeyondFear", defense against black swan scenarios are a waste of limited resources.
- from 2004 on Nassim Taleb's theory that the World Trade Center attack was a Black Swan.
Edited: | Tweet this! | Search Twitter for discussion
BackLinks: 2007-03-02-TalebBlackSwan | 2007-10-17-TalebPredictingInnovation | 2007-11-16-AmazonKindleEbookReader | 2008-04-08-RobbNewBookResilience | 2008-08-15-TalebInterview | 2008-09-16-TalebLimitsOfStatistics | 2008-10-15-KlingSchulzIncomeInequality | 2009-04-15-RobbBlackSwanSystem | 2009-04-16-TalebAvoidingBlackSwans | 2009-06-16-RafordCollapseDynamics | 2010-08-10-RobbItvMomentum | 2011-08-17-StrossUsenixFuture | 2012-02-13-TalebBlackSwanVolatilityPublicPolicy | 2012-03-22-RaoCanHydrasEatUnknownUnknownsForLunch | 2017-04-21-TalebOnInterventionistasAndTheirMentalDefects | 2017-09-17-KayTheFatherOfMobileComputingIsNotImpressed | 2021-05-02-TorenbergTheDeathOfTheMiddle | 2023-09-29-SchroederWhoPaintsTheDewOnTheDaisy | BlackSwan | BraveNewWar | ExtremiStan | GmFood | HowToUseConsciousPurposeWithoutWreckingEverything | NassimTaleb | ResilIence
TwinPages: ThoughtStorms | WikiWikiWeb