Abductive reasoning (also called abduction,[1] abductive inference,[1] or retroduction[2]) is a form of logical inference that seeks the simplest and most likely conclusion from a set of observations. It was formulated and advanced by American philosopher and logician Charles S Peirce beginning in the latter half of the 19th century. Abductive reasoning, unlike deductive reasoning, yields a plausible conclusion but does not definitively verify it. Abductive conclusions do not eliminate uncertainty or doubt, which is expressed in terms such as "best available" or "most likely". While inductive reasoning draws general conclusions that apply to many situations, abductive conclusions are confined to the particular observations in question (context)... Properly used, abductive reasoning can be a useful source of priors in Bayesian statistics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abductive_reasoning

newborn, mature, senescence, death? (more)

GEO

aka AEO: SEO targeted at GenAi

What CollaborationWare have I used? (more)

Social Networking service designed around Warrens instead of Plazas (Warrens vs Plaza) to try and counter BigWorld Pathological patterns. (more)

Elena Verna: Growth Is Now a Trust Problem. All of us are fighting a war on three fronts (thanks to AI). Customer product expectations are higher than ever. Distribution channels are collapsing. And everyone - big incumbents, new startups, even your own customers with vibecoding - are coming for your value prop. How are you supposed to grow in this new landscape? (more)

Elena Verna: You don't need to build a personal brand. Trying to build your personal brand early in your career is pointless. Instead, focus on doing the best work of your life, and your brand will follow. (more)

Jonas Wallenius: Most product management work is translation. Domain → specs → tickets → meetings → misunderstandings. I find myself increasingly building throwaway prototypes to show what I mean instead. Perfect Perfect match for LLM capabilities. And they're only getting better... (more)

Henrik Karlsson: What problem should you be working on now? At 25, when Johanna and I bought a house and had to pick an internet provider, we decided to go with the smallest data plan, 5 GB a month. I can recommend it. (more)

Chase Jarvis: How I Simplified My Morning Routine for Better Results. Before I even leave the comfort of my bed, I engage in a 15-minute meditation session (more)

Elena Verna: Building In Public is scary. Do it anyway. Most companies still operate like it’s 2012: hide everything, build in silence, save it all for one glossy launch. (more)

Michael Sippey: Stash App - an app to stash your notes. No folders, no navigation. Just your timestamped notes, newest on top, oldest on the bottom. Fast search, #hashtags, @mentions. Stash App is sort of like your own private social media app...but without any of the social, or any of the media. Native for macOS and iOS, syncs via iCloud. (more)

some people make more than others - how much is ok (more)

Real Estate Investing for Dummies by Eric Tyson (Author), Robert S. Griswold (Author) (more)

Past and present reads. Bolded-titles were faves. See esp. Greatest Books (more)

older

This is the publicly-readable WikiLog Digital Garden (20k pages, starting from 2002) of Bill Seitz (a Product Manager and CTO). (You can get your own pair of garden/note-taking spaces from FluxGarden.)

My Calling: Reality Hacking to accelerate Evolution by increasing Freedom, Agency, and Leverage of Free Agents and smaller groups (SmallWorld) via D And D of Thinking Tools (software and Games To Play).

See Intro Page for space-related goals, status, etc.; or Wiki Node for more terse summary info.

Beware the War On The Net!

shield

Current:

My Coding for fun.

Past:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/billseitz/

Agile Product Development, Product Management from MVP to Product-Market Fit, Adding Product To Your Startup Team, Agility, Context, and Team Agency, (2022-10-12) Accidental Learnings of a Journeyman Product Manager

My Coding

Oligarchy; Big Levers, Theory of Change, Change the World, (2020-06-27) Ways To Nudge Future; Network Enlightenment, Optimistic Near Future Vision; Huge Invention; Alternatives To A College Degree; Credit Crisis 2008; Economic Transition; Network Economy; Making A Living; Varieties Of Info Technology Jobs; Generative Schooling; Product Oriented Unschooling; Reality Hacker; A 20th Century Economic Theory

FluxGarden; Network Enlightenment Ecosystem; ThinkingTools Interaction as Medium; Hypermedia Pattern Language; Everyone Needs Their Own ThinkingSpace; Digital Garden; Virtual ThinkingSpace; Thinking Tools Companies; Webs Of Thinkers And Thoughts; My CollaborationWare History; Wiki Proliferation; Portal Collaboration Roadmap; Wiki For GroupWare, Overlapping Scopes Of Collaboration, Email Discussion Beside Wiki, Wiki For CollaborationWare, Collaboration Roadmap; Sister Sites; Wiki Hack

Personal Cloud; 2018-11-29-NextOpenInfrastructure, 2018-11-15-BooksVsTweets; Stream/Flow Vs Garden/Stock

Social Warrens; Culture War; 2017-02-15-MindmapCultureWarSocialMediaEconomy; Cultural Pluralism

Fractally Generative Pattern Language, Small Tribe, SimplestThing, Becoming A Reality Hacker, Less-Bullshit Living, The Craft; Games To Play; Evolution, Hack Your Life With A Private Wiki Notebook, Getting Things Done, And Other Systems

Digital Therapeutics, (2021-05-26) Pondering a Mental Health space, CoachBot; Inside-Out Markov Chain

Book list, Greatest Books

To Write

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