Peak Oil

Peak oil is the point when global petroleum production reaches its maximum rate, after which it will begin to decline irreversibly.[2][3][4][need quotation to verify] The main concern is that global transportation relies heavily on gasoline and diesel. Adoption of electric vehicles, biofuels, or more efficient transport (like trains and waterways) could help reduce oil demand. Peak oil relates closely to oil depletion; while petroleum reserves are finite, the key issue is the economic viability of extraction at current prices. Over the last century, many predictions of peak oil timing have been made, often later proven incorrect due to increased extraction rates.[9] M. King Hubbert introduced comprehensive modeling of peak oil in a 1956 paper, predicting U.S. production would peak between 1965 and 1971; his global peak oil predictions were predictive through the 1990s and 2000s but eventually were deemed premature due to improved drilling technology (fracking). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

• 2024 forecasts for the year of peak oil range from 2028 to 2050.[11] These estimates depend on future economic trends, technological advances, and efforts to mitigate climate change.

the US hit in 1970, at 11 million barrels/day. In 2004 we produced 5 million/day, and consumed 20 million/day.

• due to fracking, our trough was ~2010, and we climbed up past the old peak ~2020.

Vaclav Smil was (in 2005) skeptical. As for the market reaction, the response, eventually, does come. After OPEC nearly quintupled its oil price in 1973 the global oil consumption declined by merely 1.5% in 1974 and by 1976 it was nearly 4% above the 1973 level. Oil use may have been inelastic to the initial quintupling but it surely responded to an additional near-trebling that took place between 1978 and 1981: by 1983 the world's oil consumption fell by 11%.

key response phrase: Energy Descent (Transition Town)