(2005-08-31) Manthorpe Iraq Separatism

Tim Bray reprints Jonathan Manthorpe's recent piece on the low odds of the War On Iraq leaving behind a single Nation-State. This draft (constitution) is a fudge of the worst sort and the chances of the document getting popular approval in the planned mid-October referendum are very slim. It only needs a two-thirds opposed vote in three of the 18 provinces for it to fail. This high threshold for acceptance was meant to inspire the spirit of compromise. Instead it has produced a mush and handed the Sunnis a veto. It is a prescription for civil war and probably regional instability... Could the outcome be worse if the door was now opened to the managed dismantling of Iraq within a framework of regional security guarantees?