(2007-06-15) Shatzkin Future Book Industry

Mike Shatzkin predicts the future of (Trade) Book Publishing:

  • the trend toward Digital Media is inescapable, and will change the Book Publishing industry just like the other Creative Industries.

    • with the explosion in Content supply, focusing on a single delivery format makes you a Commodity
  • the physical Book Store business will continue to exist, but is driven by Infrastructure costs, which will lead to consolidation, leaving possibly just 1 Book Store company, probably Barnes And Noble.

    • the main physical competitor will be the Library
  • Publishers need to Fo Cus on a small number of Market Segment-s, as defined by audience/interest not product format. Host a Virtual Community for each.

  • there will still be some/fewer many-niche general-interest books. So there will need to be a publisher with expertise in handling them. But how many of them will we need?.. In fact, the Book Store-s of the future will have the greatest interest in finding those books, which will be doable by Data Mining across millions of web sites and thousands of publishers.

Also:

Dec10 update: Ben Vershbow points to pieces by Barry Eisler making similar points, but focusing on effects of A-List crowd being the first to Dis-intermediate their publishers, removing a Subsidy from the process, plus a bigger focus on Print On Demand.


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