(2023-01-09) Brander LLMs And Information Post-scarcity

Gordon Brander: LLMs and information post-scarcity. First the internet reduced the marginal cost of distributing content to zero. Now AI is reducing the marginal cost of producing content to zero.

It seems we have achieved a kind of information post-scarcity. A regime of radical overproduction. A content singularity. How will this change things?

So, what becomes scarce?

Attention becomes scarce

…but this is not a new thing.

So, the condition of superabundance creates a need for aggregation. LLMs will amplify that abundance. It’s a good bet that this strengthens the strategic importance of aggregation. (aggregator)

Fred Wilson: I think we will need to sign everything to signify its validity. When I say sign, I am thinking cryptographically signed, like you sign a transaction in your web3 wallet.

This is a net good, in my opinion. The web’s feudal security model is a huge barrier to user-ownership. On the web, you’re a serf.

Building a business model on data lock-in seems not only bad, but pointless now? Content is superabundant, so what are you locking in, exactly?

Are social graphs even a moat? Perhaps more than data, but TikTok proves you don’t need a dense social graph to serve up interesting content (Part of being entertainment, infotainment?)

LLM vendors seem more like a traditional industrial monopoly.

But industrial monopolies rely on the means of production remaining scarce. Is this a safe assumption in software? Is it a durable moat?

It feels like Subconscious and Noosphere are pretty well aligned with this future.