(2023-09-20) Greer A Neglected Factor In The Fall Of Civilizations

John Michael Greer: A Neglected Factor in the Fall (Collapse) of Civilizations. Most of a decade ago I looked back over a decade of posts on peak oil and decided that I’d said pretty much all that could be said about that topic. Fortunately there are always new perspectives to the predicament of industrial society.

Many of us have noticed that there are quite a few things the political and economic leadership of the world’s industrial nations could do to respond constructively to the rising spiral of crisis that besets us. Many of us have also noticed that these things are precisely what the political and economic leadership of the world’s industrial nations will not do.

One of the people who noticed this was the historian Arnold Toynbee... argued that civilizations fall because their leadership abandons the problem-solving function that is central to any effective elite.

Sooner or later, however, the creative minority stops coming up with solutions to new problems. Instead, it starts insisting that the same old solutions will work just as well with new problems as they did with the old ones... When this happens, the civilization tips over into decline, and eventually goes down under the weight of its unsolved problems.

It begs the obvious question: why doesn’t the dominant minority recognize what’s happening and pull out of its death spiral?

NYU professor Clay Shirky may have found the answer.... One of the points he made has been given a name of its own, the Shirky Principle. Like most really revolutionary ideas, it can be summed up simply enough: “Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution.”

Consider the weight loss industry... a total failure by every objective measure... it’s in their interest to fight obesity—but it’s not in their interest to win.

That’s why steps that could have an immediate effect on the issue never get taken. It so happens, for example, that a stunningly large number of Americans are prescribed antidepressants by their physicians. It also happens that many of the most popular antidepressants have uncontrolled weight gain—up to 5 lbs. a month, every month, as long as you take the drug—among their common side effects. Has anyone talked about correlating obesity with antidepressant use, and explored the possibility getting people who have weight problems off antidepressants, or at least switch them to drugs that don’t have that side effect? Surely you jest.

Government at all levels, the entire medical establishment, the media, and the weight loss industry have been pushing diets and exercise for more than a century now, and flinging abuse at fat people has become a national sport in the US. Those methods have not worked. Doing more of them isn’t going to work any better.

This sort of exploitation routinely rises to levels that would face legal charges in a less corrupt society. One friend of mine spent years suffering from asthma so serious that she had to make repeated trips to the hospital. A few years ago she read about the role that wheat allergy plays in some cases of asthma like hers, and decided to try removing wheat from her diet. Her asthma went away... My friend, astonished, asked, “Why didn’t you tell me?” The doctor’s response: “We prefer to medicate for that.” (meh doctors simply don't bother giving advice they think nobody will follow, which is bad but not a conspiracy)

Of course the same thing is true of institutions far removed from health care, and also of institutions in which the profit motive isn’t involved. Consider the more than Byzantine labyrinth of federal, state, and city bureaucracies tasked with fighting poverty in the United States. It’s been pointed out many times that the federal government could simply hire every impoverished person in the country for a decent salary and benefits, and pay them to do nothing at all, for much less than it costs to support the social welfare system. (i'm dubious about that math, plus of course 2nd-order side effects)

For that matter, consider the Pentagon, State Department, the CIA, and the rest of the baroque bureaucratic mess that officially has the task of protecting America’s national security... I’d like to suggest that this may be why the entire national security apparatus of the United States seems to work so hard making sure our country has as many enemies abroad as possible... It’s worthwhile in this light to remember how, once the Soviet Union went down, so much effort went into making the Middle East as hostile to American interests as possible.

Finally, let’s apply the same logic to global climate change and see how it fits... researchers pointed out that there are straightforward ways to cut carbon emissions sharply without plunging the world into medieval conditions. Grants and zero-interest loans, for example, could have been made available to insulate and weatherize millions of poorly insulated American homes, businesses, and factories. The dilapidated US passenger rail system could have been repaired and expanded, so that taking the train would become the easiest and most pleasant option for a huge share of short and mid-range journeys. Yet when climate change hit the big time, none of them seem to have been considered for a moment.