(2024-07-09) Robb The Collapse Of Complex Nations

John Robb: The Collapse of Complex Nations. If the US did collapse, what would it look like?

Currently, the leading model is the slouching shoulder shrug of a Soviet-style collapse. Let’s dig into this model to understand why.

Dmitry Orlov's brilliant 2011 book “Reinventing Collapse” and historian Niall Ferguson’s recent “We’re All Soviets Now” detail many parallels between the USSR’s collapse and the situation the US faces today.

When the USSR collapsed, the US had the opportunity to reorient its decision-making (new goals, new assumptions, etc.) to heal itself of the damage, but it failed to do so. George Washington’s farewell address would have been an excellent place to start for the inspiration required for this reorientation.

The central factor contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union was the unsustainable amount of money it spent on the national security state.

This burden made them vulnerable to economic disruption. For example, a US-led effort to radically reduce the price of oil

Victory in the Cold War should have allowed the US to reduce its defense expenditures and balance its budget using the surplus (another recommendation from Washington). Unfortunately, the US couldn’t turn off the military-industrial complex. (rest paywall)