Claims All The Way Down

Few statements about the real world are "true": All Models Are Wrong. But we make Claims all the time anyway. We try to call some of them "facts" or "assumptions" or "beliefs" or "hypothesis" or "models" as though those were well-distinguished things, or at a "hypothesis" is "based on" facts and assumptions. But the Nature of Truth is messier than that.

Thinking in Bets is more honest/realistic/flexible.