Scenario Planning

Futurism process associated with Shell Oil and the Global Business Network. Most common structure is 2x2 considering effects of whether 2 macro trends/events come true in the future. uses a Wiki

Associated with Arie De Geus, Peter Schwartz, and others

What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits free EBook (PDF)

See also Causal Layered Analysis

Some specific examples:

  • 2022: 4 scenarios for the future of economic globalization by 2027 (Davos): hi/lo physical integration, hi/lo virtual integration
  • 2022: create alternative visions for the months and years to come after the global crisis initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically for the gastronomy sector
  • 2021(?): Using 4 scenarios to represent combinations of high and low innovation, and high and low cyberconflict futures, they found a range of potential net benefit from ICTs
  • 2021: comparing 91 scenarios (across 27 sources) for the future of the university
  • 2021: 4 scenarios for the future of the COVID19 pandemic
  • 2020: Venkatesh Rao: Kinda exciting moment for scenario planning futurists. Fork of 5 truly different and divergent futures on Tuesday. Most elections it’s 2 futures that are distinct without being different. 4 are: Trump/Biden win, with/without transient crisis. 5th is perma-unraveling a la USSR.
  • 2020: (4) Political scenarios after the COVID-19 pandemic... Democracy vs Authoritarianism... Nationalism vs Globalism... → the grey middle, bifurcation, catalysts and state breakdown
  • 2018: Robots Will Take Our Jobs And We Need A Plan: 4 Scenarios For The Future
  • 2017: 4 scenarios to illustrate the routes the global economy might take (hi/lo digital investment, hi/lo ROI)

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