(2007-03-02) Taleb Black Swan

Nassim Taleb's Black Swan ISBN:1400063515 is coming out in a couple months. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a Black Swan; so was 9/11 (World Trade Center). For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Apr update: Jason Kottke points to James Surowiecki interview, plus old Malcolm Gladwell interview and other things.

Andrew Gelman's notes from reading it.