(2008-02-01) Kelly Prediction Markets

Kevin Kelly on Prediction Market-s. In particular he looks at past successes for the IowaElectronicMarkets in the past Presidential Election-s.

Sept5 update: he looks at some other markets. He concludes that the "token" (play money) markets do as well as the "real" markets. Or, more precisely, they echo each other over the near past on the current Presidential Election. Extrapolate beyond that at your own risk.