(2022-03-03) ZviM Covid 3/3/2022 Move Along

Zvi Mowshowitz: Covid-19 3/3/2022: Move Along. The good news is that this is rapidly ramping down in many places, and perhaps coming to an end. The CDC has revised its mask guidelines to target a much more sensible metric, and now recommends unmasking in a large portion of the country. I would go farther, but the offer seems acceptable

The other good news is that my wife and I will welcome our third child later today

Executive Summary
CDC revises masking guidelines to be based on hospital capacity.
Mask and vaccine mandates are being lifted in many places.
Attention rightfully shifts to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Numbers

I keep expecting deaths to drop more than they do, and each week they keep dropping much less than cases drop. That seems like it can’t be sustained

I am definitely continuing to think about what might be going on here.

World Modeling

Bob Wachter also concludes BA.2 is not worrisome beyond the potential for somewhat faster spread.

Free To Be You And Me Says CDC

The CDC’s new guidelines are based on hospital capacity, and put a remarkably large amount of the country into the green zone.

It also appears they have been systematically holding back their statistical data? I’d say what the hell, hero, except hey, it’s the CDC

State of the Union

None of it was especially insightful or new on any topic

The clear takeaway on Covid-19 was that Biden was ready to agree we could all move on, and that was a good thing.

it was obvious his heart was no longer in it

Biden then released a 96-page roadmap. I ran out of time before I could examine it in detail, but all early reports are that it is quite good. I will analyze when I can.

Prevention and Prevention Prevention Prevention

not quite. The private employer vaccine mandate will remain in place. This is one of the least justified ones

When you don’t want to do something because it would ‘send the wrong message’ it is clear that you are imposing restrictions in order to send messages.

I’m totally loving this new mayor, who ‘can’t wait’ to phase out the mandates even if he does end up waiting a little while, and is also calling out that it is time to return to the office. (Eric Adams of NYC)

Adams said that white-collar workers who continued working from home were hurting service-oriented businesses that rely on a steady stream of customers.

An important distinction to keep in mind is between benefits and costs. There being more suits to clean is a cost. All these services that people require are costs. If the reason people need to go to the office (which is a cost!) is to then use other services (which are also costs) then something is deeply wrong

Getting back to the health-based concern trolling naysayers, we do need to Remember: The goal of many was and is Permanent Midnight, and the goal of other public health officials is to not waste a crisis in order to achieve orthogonal political goals.

The changes desired may or may not be worth making, but that is based on whether they were a good idea before the pandemic.

Think of the Children

A CDC estimate claims more than 58% of American children have had Covid-19. We mostly did not notice or care. They estimate 43% of adults have had it.

When the Narrative shifts to embrace the position one was previously holding, there are two choices

Option one is to point out that the Narrative has been gaslighting us for years

is highly hypocritical and infuriating, and to give no quarter.

Option two is to point out that they’re talking sense now and acting compatibly with life, and one could not reasonably ask for more than that.

I’m mostly in the second camp. The penalty for being late should not be death, so go and sin no more. And yet. Remember.