(2024-12-03) Procopio Is It Time To Get Out Of Tech

Joe Procopio: Is It Time To Get Out Of Tech? I’m in a bit of an existential crisis, maybe a mid-life crisis but God, I hope not.

By the time 2024 started...the tech industry – and let’s just say “tech” as a whole – just felt… bleak, like it was falling apart.

Then around May, I had an epiphany – maybe it wasn’t me that was changing for the worse, maybe it was “tech.”

This time, we’re staring into the abyss of the tech industry simultaneously expanding and collapsing through this AI bubble. It’s churn and burn at an epic scale.

So… Is it time to get out of tech?

it’s definitely the most frequent conversation I’ve had over the last six months,

I’ll summarize all of those conversations into take-with-a-grain-of-salt decisions

So… it is time to get out of tech?

As a developer?
Absolutely not.

There are two kinds of developers who are being directly impacted by AI.

The first is the more junior, new developer, maybe someone just out of college or new to coding.

AI can do this – not do it well, but it can do this.

If those opportunities are gone, there’s going to be a talent gap. Right in the middle.

Which means the middle – you adequately-talented (let’s say above average), appropriately-compensated devs – are all probably safe

The other at-risk population are you supremely talented, highly-compensated (and worth it) developers who aren’t actively working on machine learning or slumming it with LLMs

all companies, up and down the scope tree, always seem to stumble into that panic area of “maybe we only need to be ‘a little successful’ for right now.” (good enough)

As a non-coding employee?
Yeah. Unless you’ve got at least 10 years and can contribute directly to the bottom line, then you might want to start thinking about it.

Regardless of how all of this plays out, the general belief is that the days of team lead and project lead in tech are ending, and I think this is more about tech malaise and inflation ending the cheap money era than it is anything to do with AI. (ZIRP)

the larger threat is the one I mentioned at the end of the last section. I think I put this best as a header in a column I recently wrote – “Good is the enemy of perfect” – And as money gets tighter

I’m seeing tech “departments” and even tech teams at startups being relegated to a black box, sometimes supported by AI, and looking more like a commodity resource like accounting

As a founder?
Maybe. I wouldn’t want to be a founder of a strictly tech company right now.

Philosophically, at least, the best startups emerge during these kinds of periods when everyone is zigging and they zag.

if you’re looking to make a buck off a trend, the AI train has sailed. If you’re working on something truly innovative that needs incubation and funding, I mean, it’s going to be as difficult as it ever was but the reward will be just as big if not bigger

As an investor?
Most definitely. For at least two more years as far as the private markets are concerned.

There are tons of great seed investments to be made, but the risk is no one is coming to follow on. Plus, a seed round is like 7 or 8 figures now. A $250K initial investment is not what it used to be.

When money isn’t cheap, investors remain conservative.

As for investors in the public markets, I mean you’re on your own. Would you put money into NVIDIA at the current valuation? Apparently a lot of you are doing just that.

As a student?
No. In fact, this is a great time to get into tech.

Tech education is usually more about the soft skills – pattern recognition, problem solving, critical thinking – more than it is about the syntax of whatever is getting kids the most jobs that year. In other words, most folks who are learning right now haven’t learned enough for it to be a big deal to unlearn.

Conclusion: Hang tight unless you’re a project manager.