(2007-10-31) Flint Free Ebook Longevity

Eric Flint shows what offering a book as a free EBook does to longevity of Printed Book sales (for the same title).

Feb'2008 update: he doesn't think the EBook will become the dominant format any time soon. I do not for one moment think that electronic reading won't become increasingly important... The only major advantage of electronic text for most readers is simply storage... The principal form it takes is that electronic publishing is increasingly supplementing paper publishing. I think he's ignoring the potential for industry-structure change based on Publish Then Filter.

• a big part of his point is that we don't have to build panic-driven DRM because online publishing doesn't compete with the Printed Book, but rather promotes it.

Apr'2008 update: further arguments on the "supplemental" model

• as an exception, he compares the $39 "electronic" Encyclopedia Britannica with the $1400 printed product. Without ever mentioning the free Wikipedia!

• but here's a reasonable model. Here is one very common pattern, reported to me by any number of people: They begin a novel at home, reading it in a paper edition. Then, bring an electronic edition with them when they travel - even if that travel is simply a short commute to work on a train or subway or bus. For traveling purposes, the storage advantages of electronic publishing become far more important than they do while reading at home. And there's the added advantage, reported to me by one person, that she can read a novel on a PDA in a boring staff meeting at work because her boss thinks she's taking notes. You can't do that with a paperback, especially one with a lurid cover. Information Ecosystem Roadmap

Jun'2008 update: he considers that if/when electronic delivery becomes more prominent, piracy still won't be the end of the world. Though it could force a complete change in the methods by which authors and publishers derive their income... But so what? Making a living a different way is still Making A Living. (Notes how the Short Story format went from dominant to marginal in Science Fiction. And notes the interplay of personal finance, Serialization, and Novel length.) Business Models For Information.