(2023-12-24) Cagan Product Predictions2024

Martin Cagan: Product Predictions 2024. (They're more worries than net predictions.) I picked the ten most common topics that people ask me about:

1. Product Managers

So obviously what I hope will happen is that more companies will choose to work like the best

But what I worry will happen is something I’ve been warning about for several years, and we all saw an example recently at Airbnb. This is when the leaders get frustrated with the weak results of product managers that are more accurately project managers, and they decide to go in a different direction, such as trying to play the necessary role themselves. ((2023-09-09) Itamar Gilad On Linkedin Why Did Airbnb Kill Product Management)

2. Product Owners

The rise of product owners has done more damage to the craft of product than anything else I can think of in the past 40 years

The root of the issue is that we have literally thousands of well-intentioned but process-focused “agile coaches” that have never done product at a product company, thinking they can train product owners.

*So I am very much hoping that we can just acknowledge this was a very big mistake, and move past this sad chapter.

Unfortunately, what’s driven this situation in the first place is process people taking over Agile, and that shows no sign of slowing down, so my worry is that this will get worse before it gets better.*

3. Product Teams

My hope is that more leaders experience the power and potential of empowered teams focused on outcomes, and embrace them.

4. Product Leaders

My worry is that more CEO’s will think they can just do this themselves.

5. Product Ops

from Melissa Perri: “Product Ops is the art of removing obstacles from evidence-based decision making.”

while this is not new (product teams have had user research and data analyst teams supporting qualitative and quantitative decision making for more than 20 years), putting them together under a common “product ops” leader can raise the visibility of this important capability

My worry is that there are others that are interested in product ops for a very different purpose, often referred to as “process and governance.” Be wary of this.

6. Customers

What’s not good is that too many product teams get so focused on the data, they stop spending time actually talking to their users and customers, which really is essential if we are to understand why the data is what it is. (Customer Development)

7. Process

my worry is that so many process people are in positions of influence that this will only continue to get worse. (2021-10-29) Cagan Process People

8. Product Coaches

my worry is that just as happened with Agile coaches, we’ll have an influx of product coaches that do not have the necessary hands-on experience at a strong product company, and the results won’t be good, and we know where that leads.

9. Product Model

The product operating model (or just “product model” for short), is the term we’ve adopted to describe the principles underlying how strong product companies work. ((2023-03-03) Cagan The Product Model)

my worry is that the process people will try to define the product model as a particular process.

10. Generative AI

many people will go to great lengths to resist thinking, and so my worry is that this will open the door to blindly accepting the recommendations of tools, and the result will drive more teams to the mediocre middle.