Idea Futures

aka Prediction Market

Using Market forces to support accurate ideas.

Robin Hanson says : Our policy-makers and media rely too much on the "ExPert" advice of a self-interested insider's club of pundits and big-shot academics. These pundits are rewarded too much for telling good stories, and for supporting each other, rather than for being "right". Instead, let us create betting markets on most controversial questions, and treat the current market odds as our best expert consensus.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

The Foresight Exchange is currently active: http://www.ideosphere.com/

Lots of other publications: http://hanson.gmu.edu/ifpubs.html

The Earth Web Book points out the importance of writing "contracts" (stating a belief in a precise and "settle-able" way) to having functioning markets.

John Brunner's Shockwave Rider also involves such markets.

IowaElectronicMarkets is well-known, esp. for political forecasts (Presidential Election)

Bryan Alexander runs the NITLE Prediction Market. Here we use a market system to learn about emergent practices for higher education. (College Education)


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